History In The Making? — March 2021 Market Recap & Outlook

After six straight months of double digit returns for Bitcoin (BTC), some investors are wondering, is this the start of another 2017-style crypto market rally?

Certainly, Ether (ETH) and many other large-cap crypto assets rallied higher in March, some even outperforming BTC considerably. Yet, amid recent declines in monthly volatility, there are signs an even more significant move may be on the horizon.
Going further, I also put metrics behind the boom in NFT enthusiasm, which has captured the curiosity of millions worldwide — expanding awareness of the crypto asset class.

Key Takeaways:

History Says — March has historically been a less volatile month for bitcoin than February. Contrary to that, average volatility in April has been 99% — making it the most volatile month for BTC. April is also the second most profitable month averaging a 51% return. If trends and current market conditions are an indication, it may be fair to expect prices to continue climbing higher.

Ether You’re Bullish or Bearish — When looking at historical price action, ETH is at a bit of a fork in the road. On the macro time frames, technical indicators show price support is currently in the high $1,400’s with short-term resistance around $2,700. Historical price action also shows that a market cycle top could theoretically provide around a 700% return from March’s closing price.

BTC’s Bull Market Support — Bitcoin has maintained a healthy uptrend since October 2020. However, historically, corrections in price are viewed as a healthy event in bull cycles. Based on a pair of technical indicators our team uses based on weekly price charts, price support would fall between $44,165-$48,702 by the beginning of May. A retracement to those levels would be about 17–25% from March’s closing price.

What Happened In Crypto and DeFi? — The United States may soon have a BTC ETF as Fidelity and WisdomTree both filed applications with the SEC. PayPal, Visa and Rakuten are just some of the companies who have enabled new crypto payment avenues. The total value locked (TVL) across the largest DeFi platforms hit an all-time high of $46.4B on March 13 and the average monthly return was +26%

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